SOCIAL SECURITY

How much will pensions really rise in 2026? This is what can already be predicted

The final figure will be released on December 12, but estimates point to an increase of 2.6% for 2026 based on the evolution of the year-on-year CPI.
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November is once again a decisive month for millions of pensioners in Spain. On the one hand, they will see in the next few days the income corresponding to their pension together with the extra pay, which means a momentary increase in the amount they receive. On the other hand, this period marks the moment when the revaluation of pensions for the following year, calculated according to the CPI, is known -or at least close to being known. Although the final figure will not be published until December 12, current estimates suggest that pensions will grow by around 2.6% in 2026.

How pension revaluation is calculated

Since the approval of Law 21/2021, pensions are updated in accordance with the average annual CPI, following the recommendations of the Toledo Pact. The aim of this method is to ensure that pensioners do not lose purchasing power in inflationary contexts. Under this mechanism, pensions increased by 8.5% in 2023, 3.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025.

The calculation follows a specific criterion: the average CPI variation of the 12 months prior to December is taken. Thus, the increase in 2026 will depend on the average CPI between December 2024 and November 2025. Although the final figure will arrive on December 12 after the publication of the CPI by the INE, the recent evolution allows us to foresee a revaluation of around 2.6%, always subject to a slight margin of variation.

Key dates to find out how much they will go up

The INE will publish on November 28 the advance CPI data for that month and, on December 12, the definitive figure. This data will be the one that will determine exactly how much pensions will rise in 2026. However, trends already allow projecting how the maximum, average and minimum amounts could be if the 2.6% is finally consolidated.

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This is how maximum and average pensions would look in 2026

The maximum pension in 2025 stands at 3,267 euros per month. With an estimated increase of 2.6%, this amount would rise to approximately 3,355 euros per month.

As for the average pension of the system, the Social Security data corresponding to October 2025 indicate an average amount of 1,430.53 euros, which with the revaluation would reach 1,467.72 euros per month.

For its part, the average retirement pension – which currently amounts to 1,668.69 euros –would rise to 1,712.07 euros in 2026 applying the same increase.

Approximate forecast of the amounts with an increase of 2.6%.

The estimate, based on current official data, is as follows:

  • Maximum pension: 3,355 euros per month
  • Average pension of the system: 1,467.72 euros per month.
  • Average retirement pension: 1,712.07 euros per month

What happens with minimum and non-contributory pensions?

Minimum pensions, non-contributory pensions and the Minimum Vital Income are also revalued each year. In 2025, minimum retirement pensions rose by 6%, while minimum contributory pensions and the MVI increased by 9.1% at the beginning of the year.

In the case of 2026, there is still no specific figure. The minimum retirement pensions with a dependent spouse will be increased beyond the CPI, with the aim of progressively reducing the 50% gap with the poverty threshold for a two-adult household, as stated by the BBVA Pension Institute.

Minimum widow’s and widower’s pensions will be increased to move towards gradual equalization with retirement pensions. In addition, retirement pensions, disability pensions and the MVI will continue to increase to converge in 2027 with 75% of the poverty threshold, according to the commitments already established.

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An increase conditioned by inflation and subject to review

Although the 2.6% increase is the most plausible estimate based on the evolution of the CPI in 2024 and 2025, the final figure could vary slightly. Trade unions and pensioners’ associations usually recall that, in scenarios of rising inflation, even percentages like this may be insufficient to maintain real purchasing power, especially in low-income households or those with minimum pensions.

In any case, it will be the official data of December 12 that will allow the forecasts to be definitively closed and all the amounts to be updated for the next fiscal year.

Automatic Translation Notice: This text has been automatically translated from Spanish. It may contain inaccuracies or misinterpretations. We appreciate your understanding and invite you to consult the original version for greater accuracy.

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