The risk of a tsunami in the western Mediterranean is no longer a remote possibility, but a real and tangible threat for many countries, among them Spain. Experts from UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission have warned with 100% certainty that, within the next 30 years, the coasts of southern Spain could face such an event. The Averroes fault, located in the Alboran Sea, south of the peninsula, is identified as one of the areas of greatest danger, where an underwater earthquake could trigger waves of up to six meters that would reach the Spanish coast in just 21 minutes.
How devastating would a tsunami in the Mediterranean be?
Unlike the massive tsunamis that have hit the Pacific and Indian Oceans, a tsunami in the Mediterranean is not expected with waves of 20 or 30 meters; however, waves of only one or two meters already represent a significant danger to low-lying areas and Spanish ports. Pascal Roudil, technical coordinator of the French National Tsunami Warning Center, warns that the speed of the phenomenon is one of the most dangerous factors, and explains that the strength of the currents and the volume of water in motion are capable of causing substantial damage to coastal infrastructures and flooding streets and urban areas, as reported by EuroNews. In addition, authorities are taking into account the risk of tsunamis originating in North Africa, specifically on the Algerian coast.“An earthquake in this region could cross the Mediterranean in barely an hour,” warns Roudil. These limited response times emphasize the need for coastal towns to be prepared and have effective evacuation systems in place.
Preparations underway: Chipiona, pioneer in evacuation plans
In Spain, the State Civil Protection Plan for Tsunami Risk already contemplates an early warning system designed to quickly identify submarine earthquakes. In addition, some coastal municipalities, such as Chipiona, in Cadiz, aspire to be considered “tsunami ready”. This town has already implemented evacuation drills and specific signage, and is among seven communities in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean that UNESCO is helping to prepare for the eventual impact of a tsunami.
In view of UNESCO’s forecasts, planning and education on these risks have become key points to improve the safety of the population and reduce possible material and human losses. The experience of other countries, such as Japan and France, which have developed warning systems and detailed protocols, can serve as a guide in the preparation of the Iberian Peninsula.
A growing risk that requires preparation and education
Despite the apparent calm, experts maintain that a tsunami is only a matter of time. Although an event of this magnitude might seem unthinkable for the Mediterranean coasts, reports from UNESCO and other specialized agencies make it clear that preparedness is essential to minimize damage. Given the certainty of such an event in the next three decades, Spain is working on preventive strategies ranging from evacuation plans to public education in the event of a natural catastrophe. Meanwhile, in the most exposed localities, the implementation of signage, drills and cooperation between municipalities and emergency agencies will continue to expand the resources needed to deal with a possible emergency of this type.
